What happened and where do we go from here?

An open question for the Democratic Party after the election results last Tuesday.

Levi Asher

Nov 09, 2024

Some caveats

We don’t have all the data back from the election results. It will take a few months to compile enough data to get into how specific demographics broke for Trump. I will make some general claims below about working class voters and Latino voters especially, but will do so by pointing to large county-wide swings and pre election day polling shifts.
I do not have all the answers, nor does anyone for that matter. And if someone is trying to tell you they do, you should give their opinions less trust. This post is my immediate reaction and assumptions about why Tuesday went poorly for Democrats and some of the directional decisions I think we should make going forward.
For those who read this and don’t know my background, I’ve worked on electoral campaigns for Democrats for the last decade. I grew up in rural Missouri in a union household, worked across the Midwest before moving to Houston, Texas three years ago. I’ve worked for and with candidates of all backgrounds and have worked on everything from a County Commissioner primary in the most diverse county in the country to a Governor’s race in Missouri where the candidate was endorsed by the NRA (yes, a Democrat!).

What happened?

Geopolitical environment

I almost threw-up writing the word geopolitical. Not because its not true or an excuse for what happened, but because this explanation is the kind of explanation that turns away working class voters from the Democratic party.

As it has been reported everywhere, there is an anti-incumbent sentiment across the country for parties who were in office post-covid. This trend is closely tied to attitudes about the economy, specifically inflation. In addition to attitudes about the economy, polls consistently showed that folks think we’re headed down the wrong track with 60-70% agreeing the country is headed in the wrong direction. All of these indicate that the electorate was ready to fire the people in charge. This phenomenon is something campaigns can make small dents in, but ultimately the hill was, probably, always going to be too steep to climb.

I want to be clear, there are decisions to critique, directional changes and investments the party must make, but the Harris-Walz campaign ran one of the best campaigns we could have asked for given the circumstances. I don’t believe there is a single decision or group of decisions that could have been made to change the outcome of the election. This outcome has more to do with the geopolitical environment than VP Harris not going on Joe Rogan or the ongoing conflict in Gaza, or any other critique you’ll read on X.

Working Class Shift

After 2016, many in the Democratic Party pointed to the shift of White working class voters as the reason President Donald Trump won. In 2016, I saw firsthand this shift from union halls across Missouri during the primary between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. During the general election in Missouri there was a 16-point gap between the Presidential race and the U.S. Senate race. This split is more clear in the union dense, white working class counties and precincts across Missouri. The language President Trump speaks resonated with White working class voters.

In 2020, President Trump expanded his support among working class voters of color from the 2016 election. Fortunately, for Biden and the Democratic Party a pandemic election and expanded electorate of suburban voters resulted in a win on election night (ok look I realize 2020 was more complicated than that, but I am not here to relitigate 2020).

2024 will be the election that formalizes the shift of the working class vote. Democrats can no longer claim to be the party of the working class voter. We have lost the trust of the working class, regardless of how effective we think our policies are and how harmful we think the policies are of Republicans, working class voters have made it clear they don’t trust us. In 2016 that was working class White voters, but now it is clearly working class voters of color. There are a million arguments to be made about why that is our new reality (we will get into some below don’t worry!), but first we have to accept that it is. If you are interested in diving more into 2020 and 2024 shift among working class voters of color, I highly recommend reading Patrick Ruffini’s Party of the People. I read it last winter and it was on my mind a lot election night.

Latino Shift

While we are still waiting on more specific and accurate data, one shift in the electorate is clear, the shift among Latino voters. I’m not going to dwell on this shift for very long, because I believe it is closely aligned with the working class shift described above. In addition to the promise of a good economy under President Trump, polling and focus groups have shown the Republican messaging on cultural issues have had a strong impact on the rightward shift with Latino voters. The border is also an increasingly potent issue with Latino voters, as it is with all working class. You can find this shift all over the U.S. from New York City, to Miami-Dade County to Pennsylvania and here in Texas. The Rio Grand Valley has the most pronounced shifts, pictured below and courtesy of the Texas Tribune.

Anti-Trans ads

As reported in the Texas Tribune, the anti-trans ads aimed at VP Harris and Democratic candidates across the country shifted the conversation from the economy, abortion rights or immigration to an increasingly divisive issue that frames Democrats as extreme and not prioritizing issues facing most working class voters. These attack ads created the “vibe” that Democrats don’t care about your rising grocery bill, instead they care about gender-affirming care for inmates. While we can all agree on the offensive nature of these ads, we cannot ignore the impact they had on voters, especially working class voters.

I am not going to even pretend to have the right answer on how we address the attacks, or prioritize trans healthcare as a party, but we cannot ignore the power of these ads and how this issue will be weaponized against Democratic candidates moving forward. As a party we need to have a conversation that people approach with open minds, open hearts and where we all act in good faith toward finding messages, policies and a response to the Republican attacks. Our approach can’t sacrifice our beliefs as a party, but at the same time can’t get us to the point where the Presidential candidate advocates for government-paid transgender surgeries for inmates and illegal immigrants in detention centers (Additional context around Harris’ 2019 statements).

Where do we go from here?

Winning back Working Class Voters

If we want to have viable paths to the Senate and Presidency we are going to have to win back working class voters. This is not something that will happen overnight. This is something that will be messy and unclear when we are doing it. This will take campaigns, the party and organizations to change how we speak, legislate and campaign. Again, I don’t have all the answers but I have an idea on a few places we can start.

Policies Ideas and Messaging

We need to eliminate the word policies from our vocabulary. Ok— maybe that is a little too far, but really we must stop talking like we are in a classroom. We’ll talk more about language below, but the ideas we campaign on and how we message them are crucial to winning back working class voters.

It’s the economy stupid, is a common phrase my friends and I yell when we see campaigns running on issues unrelated to folks pocketbooks. Overall, campaigns this cycle did talk about the economy, but it never felt like it was at the top of the list. Additionally and more importantly we never gave clear, simple ideas for how we are going to improve the checkbook of voters. Yes, we had many ideas, but these ideas often were branded as buckets of money we were giving folks or tax credits or clean energy jobs. None of that is clear, none of that is bold and none of that tells someone exactly how their life is going to get better. Trump had a clever and clear idea, No Tax on Tips, an idea VP Harris eventually took and campaigned on. This is the perfect example of a clear idea that doesn’t need explaining or a white paper. Democrats must go to the drawing board and find simple, yet bold ideas that are aggressively populist and bring back working voters.

Candidates and Language

Voters across the country are feeling like the political and social elite have taken over the Democratic Party (and it should be said that both parties favorability ratings are at an all time low). Why do voters feel this way? Voters have seen the party push away Bernie Sanders, lecture those in the party for the language they use and the base of the party has become increasingly more wealthy and college educated.

The language we use matters— Sarah Longwell who hosts a weekly podcast where she breaks down focus groups, found that when she ask voters in focus groups if they think Donald Trump is an authoritarian, the first response by far is, “what’s an authoritarian?”. Voters are not reading the NYT in their limited free time, they’re taking their kids to baseball practice or watching Dancing with the Stars. As a party we must overhaul the language and way we talk to folks. No more Latinx, no more telling people why the economy is good, no more lecturing on folks that the economists and experts say our policy is better. People don’t give a fuck. People want to know how THEIR life is gonna be better and not be lectured about the way they talk.

It is not just the language we use and the ideas we campaign on, it is also about the candidates that run and the “vibe” they bring. We need less candidates flaunting degrees from Harvard and more candidates with calluses on their hands from working union jobs. While, that may not literally always be possible we can find and fund candidates that give off that vibe (yes, AOC fits this criteria!). Think more Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester both of who lost, but vastly outperformed VP Harris in deep-red states. These candidates will relate much more with voters than candidates who come from esteemed academic backgrounds or at least communicate like they did (Sherrod went to Yale, but does not talk to folks like he did). This also plays with the idea that candidates are talking down to folks. President Biden lecturing the media and in turn the American people that actually the economy is doing well, is a prime example.

For the 4th time, I do not claim to have all the answers, but we must start with our candidates, the language they use and the ideas they talk about. We must be relatable to folks, while giving them clear direction on how we will make their life better.

The New Media

Joe Rogan, Theo Von and the Godfather Dana White

The day before the election, the world’s largest podcaster with arguably the biggest reach online gave a clear endorsement to President Trump.

We can argue the exact impact President Trump’s, JD Vance’s and Elon Musk’s interviews had on the Joe Rogan podcast, but one thing is clear, Republicans talked to millions of voters through a podcast ecosystem that Democrats didn’t.

This podcast ecosystem is very Bro-e, but not inherently conservative. This election the podcast ecosystem appeared more conservative, because of Dana White’s push to get President Trump and other conservatives on podcasts, but Joe Rogan endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016 and consistently holds progressive social beliefs. Theo Von hosted Bernie Sanders and tended to agree on a lot of issue with him. Even comedian Andrew Shultz pushed back on President Trump on the Flagrant podcast.

Look— the reality is these guys don’t do gotcha interviews. These guys just want to shoot the shit, and complain about the corruption in our politic system. Much like the working class voters we are trying to win over. Their audiences are HUGE and we cannot ignore them. We must consistently show-up on these podcasts and find podcasts that aren’t being touched by politicians and show up there. And we need credible messengers who can show-up and deliver our message on these platforms. We won’t be able to build our own Joe Rogan, we must make our case on his show to his audience.

Building our own systems

While we cannot build our own Joe Rogan, we can invest in our own media. There is no reason why we can’t find donors to fund a media ecosystem to build content for all channels. We need to train, bolster and support our own system of influencers who can make organic content that gets into the feeds of low-information voters. I’m not going to pretend to know how to do this, but we need to put some smart, young people in charge of putting together media similar to the Huffington Post, but more short-form video. There is too much work to be done in this context and I’ll leave it at this for now.

Thank you for reading this far! I’ve never written a blog like this and am unsure how much I’ll do in the future. But if you enjoyed reading please share this to your network and subscribe!

Resources and background

For those who talk politics with me year-around you know I’m an avid listener to a few podcasts. They are listed below for your enjoyment, I put them in order of the impact they’ve had on my worldview.

Hacks on Tap - David Axelrod and Mike Murphy always have a clear, level headed view on the political consequences of each situation.
The Focus Group - Sarah Longwell of the Bulwark podcast delivers really insightful insights from focus groups across the country. These are free previews and listen-ins to focus groups that cost tens of thousands of dollars to do!
Pro Politics with Patrick Ruffini - Democratic pollster Zac McCary interviews Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, whose book I recommend below, about the shift with working class voters of color. Zac has other great listens, mostly interviewing professionals in the industry.
The Latino Century - Mike Madrid & Tim Miller (pre-election) dive into the populist voting bloc that has shifted rightward in the Latino community. This 45-min podcast can give a lot more insight than I can into this shift.
The Bulwark - Tim Miller covers politics as a former Republican operative.
The Wilderness - Jon Favreau covers the 2024 election and what VP Harris needs to do to beat President Trump.
Pod Save America - The former Obama crew tackle breaking news and campaigns weekly. Their recent episodes on what happened has helped drive some of my thinking.

Books that have influenced me—

Party of the People - Plugging for the third time Patrick Ruffini’s book. While I don’t agree with everything, his insight on the rightward shift among working class voters has been pretty spot-on.
Where have all the Democrats gone? - Ruy Teixeira and John Judis cover similiar themes to Patrick Ruffini.
Harvest the vote - Jane Kleeb writes about how we can win back rural voters, many of the themes can be applied to working class voters across the country.
Angrynomics - Eric Lonergan and Mark Blyth cover the shift among working class voters through economic reasoning. This book also suggests some bold and clear ideas at the end.
Reinventing Political Advertising - Hal Malchow talks about how campaigns can better communicate and target. This book is less about the shift and more about how we can run better campaigns, operate better as parties and as organizations in the progressive space.

This is my first attempt to write a blog and brain dumb my thoughts. Please share your feedback, discussion, questions, etc. below!